Ryan and Elliott break down the Oscars. Who will win; who should win; and a possible dark horse looking to play spoiler.
Best Picture
Ryan:
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Lion
Dark horse: Arrival
Doubtful that Arrival would win, but how awesome would it be for a sci-fi flick to win Best Picture?
Elliott:
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Moonlight
Dark horse: Hidden Figures
Moonlight has a legit shot to win, but this will likely be La La Land’s night in many categories, proving once again that Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood.
Actor in a Leading Role
Ryan:
Will win: Casey Affleck
Should win: Casey Affleck
Dark horse: Ryan Gosling
This is Affleck's category to lose, in spite of all the hype surrounding La La Land. Although I personally think Gosling should have been nominated for The Nice Guys...
Elliott:
Will win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Should win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Dark horse: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Affleck is not a true dark horse as many consider him the favorite, and Ryan Gosling could win amidst all the La La love, but Denzel should take it with his powerhouse performance in Fences. It truly was peak Denzel.
Actress in a Leading Role
Ryan:
Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Should win: Ruth Negga, Loving
Dark horse: Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Elliott:
Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Should win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Dark horse: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Huppert won the Golden Globe and Portman could also win for Jackie but it should be La La Land again here with Emma Stone.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Ryan:
Will win: Viola Davis, Fences
Should win: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Dark horse: Nicole Kidman, Lion
Elliott:
Will win: Viola Davis, Fences
Should win: Viola Davis, Fences
Dark horse: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Viola Davis is my lock of the night. And she deserves it!
Actor in a Supporting Role
Ryan:
Will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Should win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Dark horse: Jeff Bridges, Hell of High Water
Elliott:
Will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Should win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Dark horse: Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Animated Feature Film
Ryan:
Will win: Zootopia
Should win: Zootopia
Dark horse: Kubo and the Two Strings
No doubt that Zootopia was the best animated film this year, however Kubo was visually incredible and had a different subject matter than what is usually depicted in "kids' movies".
Elliott:
Will win: Zootopia
Should win: Moana
Dark horse: Kubo and the Two Strings
Cinematography
Ryan:
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Arrival
Dark horse: Arrival
Another sure-thing for La La although I personally don't think it deserving of this award at all. Bradford Young's work on Arrival was incredible and deserving of recognition.
Elliott:
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Arrival
Dark horse: Moonlight
Directing
Ryan:
Will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Should win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Dark horse: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Chazelle will win because La La Land; Lonergan did a phenomenal job with Manchester and should win; I would love to see Villeneuve take home the statue, but even if he doesn't, his time is coming.
Elliott:
Will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Should win: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Dark horse: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Should be another win for La La Land here, though I really think Jenkins has an honest chance to win for Moonlight. But I cannot stress enough how much Villeneuve deserves it.
Documentary (Feature)
Ryan:
Will win: O.J. Made in America
Should win: I Am Not Your Negro
Dark horse: 13th
Elliott:
Will win: O.J.: Made in America
Should win: 13th
Dark horse: I Am Not Your Negro
The controversy as to whether Made in America should even be eligible may have turned some voters against it. If it does, 13th will win.
Film Editing
Ryan:
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Arrival
Dark horse: Arrival
This is another category they will give to La La just because. But it should go to Joe Walker (Arrival) for sure.
Elliott:
Will win: La La Land, Tom Cross
Should win: La La Land, Tom Cross
Dark horse: Arrival, Joe Walker
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Ryan:
Will win: Moonlight
Should win: Arrival
Dark horse: Arrival
Not likely that Arrival will win, but it should. It was inventive screenwriting and something a bit different from what is usually celebrated in this category.
Elliott:
Will win: Moonlight
Should win: Moonlight
Dark horse: Arrival
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Ryan:
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Manchester by the Sea
Dark horse: Hell or High Water
La La will win, but Manchester was a better written film by far. Hell or High Water could surprise here though.
Elliott:
Will win: Manchester by the Sea
Should win: The Lobster
Dark horse: Hell or High Water
The Lobster was remarkable and, I'm sad to say, has almost no chance of winning. I'm predicting this will be Manchester by the Sea's lone win. Hell or High Water is a great script, if you have the time and desire, I suggest reading it by following the link here.
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